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Interactive Markets Chart Pack

We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack with our views on the latest developments in global markets, and how we expect them to perform in 2025 and beyond. Note: This Chart Pack is updated...

13th March 2025 (Updated 8th May 2025) 1 min read

Equities Update

Revising back up our forecast for the S&P 500

Despite the latest setback in the S&P 500, we are revising back up our end-2025 forecast for the index in response to the de-escalation of the trade war albeit to a lower level of 6,250 than the...

22nd May 2025 5 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Is US equity exceptionalism back for good?

We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500. But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US...

30th May 2025 5 mins read

Equities Update

Outperformance of EM equities unlikely to return

Most emerging market equities have held up surprisingly well of late, and in fact broadly outperformed global equities. But we think further outperformance is unlikely, especially for commodity...

30th May 2025 4 mins read

Capital Daily

US big tech is back … but not at China’s expense

The rolling back of tariffs has coincided with a recovery in big tech in the US and China. Their dual rally is something new since Donald Trump returned to the White House. We think there’s a good...

14th May 2025 5 mins read

Bonds & Equities

Three key questions on the outlook for Europe’s financial markets

European markets have had a strong start to the year, and we are cautiously optimistic about the outlook over the next couple of years. We think European equities have turned a corner, while euro-zone...

15th May 2025 5 mins read

US equity exceptionalism is back

We have revised back up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500 in response to the de-escalation of the trade war albeit to a lower level, of 6,250, than the projection we had before “Liberation Day”. While our sense is that the worst may now be over in the trade war, we aren’t reverting to our old forecast of 7,000 because we became a bit more equivocal about the prospects for a big boost from enthusiasm around AI.

Nonetheless, on balance it does seem to us that the backdrop of improving sentiment (the past couple of weeks notwithstanding), a fairly resilient US economy, and continued progress being made in AI tech itself, does set the stage for something of a tailwind for the US tech sectors – and therefore the US market relative to others – over the remainder of the year.