Commodities Weekly On, off, and on again tariffs is a recipe for volatility Commodity prices have swung alongside the tariff news flow this week. While there is plenty of uncertainty around the implications of this week's developments, we know that product-specific tariffs... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Commodities in an age of tariffs Although the global tariff environment now appears to be heading towards a far more benign environment than had appeared likely a month or so ago, it still represents a demand shock that will prove a... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update Uneven hit to metals prices from slowing global trade Less favourable conditions for global goods production and trade will be yet another factor weighing on demand for industrial metals and supports our view that prices will fall by more than the... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Grain prices won’t plummet if war in Ukraine ends Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus How will Australia weather the China slowdown? Although the détente in the trade war may provide some respite to the Chinese economy in the near term, we remain pessimistic about its longer run prospects. The slowdown in China will undoubtedly... 27th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: $175 billion of bullion?; Kazakhstan is sorry not sorry Gold bugs’ hearts will have skipped a beat when President Trump announced the plan to construct a Golden Dome over the US earlier this week, only to regain a normal cardiac rhythm when it became clear... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Iran, Egypt’s MPR, Morocco secures UAE investment Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the... 22nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update What do price ratios tell us about the value of gold? The lack of an income stream makes it notoriously hard to value gold objectively. And while the price of gold relative to other assets – such as silver, oil and equities – is often used to assess the... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US equity and bond markets to keep ignoring oil We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets. 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Easing supply risks sharpens focus on soft oil demand Despite the latest tariff rollback, commodity demand is still set to soften this year. In oil markets, with supply set to rise as OPEC+ brings back barrels more quickly than first planned, the risks... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Insecurity in Nigeria: will Tinubu fix it? Nigeria’s long-running security challenges have brought obvious human costs, and they have also contributed to the economy’s woes by hurting output in the agriculture and oil sectors, weakening demand... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg up After an extraordinary rally in gold prices, the recent pullback naturally raises the question of where gold prices may be headed next. In our view, the rest of this year will prove more challenging... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran... 13th May 2025 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
