India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Equity outperformance to fade, RBI’s bumper rate cut Despite the bright near-term economic outlook for India, we suspect Indian equities’ recent strong run will prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we think that the RBI's easing cycle is now over following its... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: New GDP forecasts, long-run rankings, RBI preview In light of the strong Q1 data, we've revised up our GDP growth forecast for India for 2025. Into next week, with inflation at a multi-year low, the RBI looks set to continue its easing cycle. 30th May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Windfall for the Finance Ministry, flash PMIs, Q1 GDP The RBI's bumper dividend transfer announced today gives the Finance Ministry a bit of breathing room as spending pressure mounts. Next week, we expect to learn that the economy maintained a... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Not such a hurry after all While Donald Trump still sounds bullish on the chances of a trade deal with India, India’s government has signalled this week that the US will have to give some ground too. Meanwhile, although tariffs... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Missile strikes and trade deals Rising tensions in Kashmir are not a major threat to India's economy, but if China were to step in and provide support to Pakistan, it would surely put a major dent in the improvement in Sino-Indian... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Exporters could fill some of China's void India looks relatively well-positioned to be an alternative to China as a supplier of goods to the US in the immediate term. And India also stands out as likely to benefit over the long term – the... 2nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: JD Vance in India, Kashmir, flash PMIs, dovish RBI US Vice President JD Vance was in India this week talking up progress on a potential trade deal as well as hailing the strength of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, India’s... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Pharma threat, tariff-front running, China dumping A US import levy on pharmaceuticals would be a blow to India’s economy but far from a fatal one: pharmaceuticals have been a longstanding strong-point in India's export sector but they have been... 17th April 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: More Apple pie, with a side of pragmatism Apple's reported decision to increase production of iPhones in India to export to the US is an example of how the country is well placed to benefit from the escalating trade war. But at the same time... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Economy can withstand tariff blow If the 26% US tariff on India is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity but the impact won't be very big given that India is not especially reliant on US demand. And the RBI can give an... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Trump’s triple tariff threat We will learn next week whether or not India's concessions to President Trump work in staving off (or reducing) a US reciprocal tariff. But India will take cold comfort from the fact that Japan and... 28th March 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Equities regain some poise, less protectionist trade policy India's benchmark Sensex equity index has just had its best week in almost three years, but the big picture is that the market is still down 11% from its peak and we don't think this is the start of a... 21st March 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Three risks to the outlook The big takeaway from our India Economic Outlook published this week is that the economy appears to have bottomed out and, with the help of policy stimulus, growth should pick up further over the... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariffs, trade talks and Tesla President Trump had some stern words on India's tariff policy this week. But the Trump administration’s stance on India seems different from its approach to other countries: it seems focused on... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view The formation of a committee to assess the scope of possible tariff reductions is another sign that PM Modi is seeking to make concessions to President Trump in order to avoid being hit hard by... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Limited macro risks from weaker rupee The Indian rupee is hovering close to record lows against the US dollar and we think it will hit a new low of 90/$ by the end of the year. This presents limited macro risk: the inflation pass through... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
