Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Real household disposable income growth is now slowing, but we still expect household consumption will accelerate to around 1.8% y/y on average over 2025-27 as households start to run down the savings they have built up. That will help all-retail rents …
2nd July 2025
The gradual recovery in property values underway in Europe is unlikely to be pushed off track by tariff developments this year, but we think values still have further to fall in the US and APAC as they adjust to the higher interest rate environment. …
Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will become more attractive places to visit. However, there is a …
1st July 2025
Net lending to property gains momentum Net lending to property had another strong month in May, with the total of £2.15bn the largest amount in five years. That was primarily due to a rise in lending to standing developments, which surged to £2bn from …
30th June 2025
Despite solid take-up the industrial vacancy rate has risen to a 10-year high, which reflects occupiers shifting into new buildings at the expense of the secondhand market. We expect that dynamic to continue and a further small rise in vacancy will push …
25th June 2025
A combination of factors, including surging energy and wage costs and an increased regulatory burden, have pushed multifamily operational costs to over 40% of rent, cutting income returns. But with energy costs set to drop and a looser labour market …
19th June 2025
UK commercial property is on the road to recovery and lending to the sector has been strong in recent months. But with yields set to remain stable, the rise in capital values will be modest over the next few years. Thanks to stronger rental growth the …
18th June 2025
The Deputy Prime Minister has urged the Chancellor to close the commercial property stamp duty ‘loophole’, which could lead to an average increase in tax on property transactions of 2.0 to 2.5%-pts. If well signposted, that is likely to lead to a surge in …
13th June 2025
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
After a lean couple of years, the outlook for commercial property construction is brightening. While the economic outlook is fairly weak, vacancy rates in some subsectors such as prime offices and residential are low which will support rental growth. …
6th June 2025
Construction activity improves as tariff uncertainty falls back The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the third consecutive month in May, although the rise from 46.6 to 47.9 still suggests that construction activity is contracting. Within the …
5th June 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
30th May 2025
There were few major changes in the May IPF Consensus Survey despite increased economic uncertainty. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be around 8.0% p.a. over 2025-29, which leaves our forecast of 7.5% p.a. toward the bottom end of …
29th May 2025
The pandemic is firmly in our collective rear-view mirrors, but five years on, its effects continue to drive real estate performance differentials. We expect it to remain integral to driving winners and losers over the next five years and into the 2030s. …
28th May 2025
European residential property outperformed all-property for the third consecutive year in 2024 and our updated forecasts suggest that this will continue over the coming five years. Returns were especially strong in the Netherlands, but going forward we …
27th May 2025
Overview – UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, and some sectors may even see small benefits. Rental growth has also held up better than expected. But with increased uncertainty weighing on economic …
20th May 2025
Property valuations worsened in Q1 for the second quarter in a row as property yields saw little change even as gilt yields rose. We still think the 10-year gilt yield will see a gradual fall over the next couple of years. That will help valuations …
13th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
Single-family homes have outperformed other residential sectors over the past four years as a race for space and stretched homebuyer affordability have supported demand, at the same time as developers have offered bulk discounts in the face of waning home …
7th May 2025
Increased uncertainty weighs on commercial construction The headline CIPS construction PMI edged up to 46.6 in April, from 46.4 in March. That left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector. A small rise in the housing and …
Net lending to property falls back Net lending to property weakened to a one year low in March, with total lending of £514m down from £1.59bn in February. The drop was driven by lending to standing investments, which fell to £530m from £1.49bn. Debt …
1st May 2025
The UK economy is relatively well insulated from the rise in US tariffs, and property even more so. Indeed, while the overall direct impact is likely to be small, some commercial sectors may even see a benefit, such as student accommodation. That said, …
29th April 2025
The Q1 RICS survey showed little change from the previous quarter, with surveyors pointing to subdued levels of occupier demand and elevated availability. That points to a slowdown in rental growth this year, with only alternatives such as data centres …
25th April 2025
UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, but a higher risk environment will drag on investment volumes. Yield compression will also be limited, and that means the recovery in all-property returns will be …
23rd April 2025
The pandemic-driven reduction in office-based footfall in city centres has weighed heavily on many urban environments, particularly in the US. But if cities can find ways to align incentives with other stakeholders and re-shape those environments to …
22nd April 2025
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2025) …
17th April 2025
With the exception of some industrial assets, commercial property in the UK is not directly impacted by the higher tariffs announced by President Trump and property equities have performed relatively well. Nevertheless, a 5% fall in property equity prices …
9th April 2025
Last week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about how the pandemic will shape real estate into the 2030s. This note shares our answers to some of the most interesting questions raised, covering the pandemic’s …
8th April 2025
Rising interest rates and costs weigh on construction activity The headline CIPS construction PMI saw a small rise in March to 46.4, from 44.6 in February. But that still left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector. …
4th April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
The pandemic triggered an exodus from large cities in both the UK and US as households used the freedom of remote work to move to cheaper locations with larger homes. In the rental market, that trend has largely reversed, with younger households valuing …
Net lending to property rises to close to a 5-year high Net lending to property continued its recent run of strength in February, with total lending of £1.58bn up from £917m in January and the highest monthly figure since May 2020. As usual the rise was …
31st March 2025
Physical retail demand has not only been shaped by online shopping, but also by shifting working patterns which have redistributed where we spend our money since COVID-19. Nevertheless, we expect a more even retail performance with the worst-hit …
26th March 2025
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
Gilt yields should fall back this year, but with property looking somewhat overvalued we doubt that will trigger much in the way of yield compression. That means the recovery in all-property returns will be weak by past standards. Thanks to stronger …
21st March 2025
Despite numerous reports of firms rowing back on remote work, the evidence in the UK, US and the EU suggests that the share of jobs being done remotely has remained constant over the past couple of years. Admittedly, that may reflect relatively tight …
20th March 2025
The sharp drop in retail rents seen during the pandemic coincided with a surge in rents for distribution warehouses and, as a result, the difference between the two is at a record low. That will help physical retail stores compete with online and …
10th March 2025
The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 8.0% p.a. over 2025-29, with views ranging from a high of 9.3% p.a. and low of 7.1% p.a. That puts our …
7th March 2025
Higher costs drive construction activity to post-pandemic low The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped to 44.6 in February, from 48.1 in January, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. Part of the decline was due to a sharp fall in the volatile …
6th March 2025
Five years ago, we were downbeat about the immediate prospects for the largest city real estate markets, the so-called gateways, and that view has proved correct. But we also argued that this malaise would be short lived and strong fundamentals would be …
5th March 2025
The ‘race for space’ following the pandemic and shift to remote work is evident in both the UK and US, with houses becoming more expensive relative to flats. And that premium for larger homes looks set to endure. While there may be a further small …
4th March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
Net lending to property has a steady start to the year Net lending to property had a steady start to 2025, with the total of £917mn in January down from £1.28bn in December 2024, but close to the average seen over 2024. The rise in net lending was …
3rd March 2025
Industrial property has been a clear winner over the past five years, with double-digit annual rental growth far outpacing expectations. However, as we predicted early on, supply has been responsive and, combined with a normalisation in demand, those …
25th February 2025
Hotels have seen a considerable turnaround in the past five years given the near-existential threat that the pandemic posed to the sector. Having bottomed last year, we expect values will grow in the coming years, with a pick-up in consumer spending …
20th February 2025
Overview – The economic outlook has worsened over the past couple of months, which supports our call that the recovery in commercial property will be modest by past standards. Admittedly, interest rates are set to fall back. But with the spread over gilts …
19th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
With return-to-office policies again hitting the headlines in the last week we are highlighting our recent notes on the outlook for remote work across the markets we forecast. In the first two of those, we pushed back against the idea that in the next few …
17th February 2025
Property valuations worsened in Q4 as alternative asset yields rose and property yields essentially held steady. With the 10-year gilt yield now falling back, and property yields set to for a period of stability, we expect property valuations will …
13th February 2025
Five years ago, the retail sector was staring at the abyss, as lockdowns and virus-related restrictions worsened what was already a crisis in demand. The turnaround since has been dramatic. But while the sector has now re-priced and is set to perform …
12th February 2025
