China Economics Update Rerouting will ease tariff blow to Chinese exports Our new estimates based on trade in thousands of individual products suggest that rerouting helped to offset around half of the fall in China’s exports to the US during the first Trump trade war. If... 29th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Falling inflation gives RBI scope to keep cutting With headline inflation now at a multi-year low, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is poised to cut the repo rate by another 25bps (to 5.75%) at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday 6th June. In... 29th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set to cut rates further The dovish tone adopted by the Bank of Korea today, alongside what we think will be continued weakness of the economy suggest that further interest rate cuts are likely in the coming months. 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Tariffs start to drag on China’s growth Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth slowed in April. But, so far, US tariffs seem to have had a bigger impact on consumer sentiment than industrial activity, with rerouting and... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on the JGB drama, and what it means for the world Despite all of the debt and deficit news out of the US, the spotlight in ultra-long bond markets has increasingly been focused on Japan. The surge in yields there last week seems to have sparked a... 28th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage growth stronger than official data suggest The bulk of the evidence suggests that the recent sharp slowdown in regular earnings growth is a statistical anomaly rather than genuine. With this year’s spring wage negotiations resulting in the... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Windfall for the Finance Ministry, flash PMIs, Q1 GDP The RBI's bumper dividend transfer announced today gives the Finance Ministry a bit of breathing room as spending pressure mounts. Next week, we expect to learn that the economy maintained a... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Exports still holding up, but online retailers under fire Chinese exports have held up surprisingly well in the face of US tariffs, with exports to other markets helping to offset the fall in shipments to the US. But there are signs that other countries are... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: MAS and CBSL to loosen monetary policy further Data published earlier this week confirmed that Singapore’s economy contracted in the first quarter of the year. And with inflationary pressures very low, we expect the central bank to loosen policy... 23rd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The JGB sell-off isn’t as worrisome as it might seem We think the yields of Japanese government bonds will continue to rise, but because of BoJ hikes rather than concerns about fiscal sustainability. 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Greek fiscal comparison is wide of the mark PM Ishiba this week rebuffed calls for tax cuts ahead of July’s Upper House election by arguing that Japan’s fiscal situation is worse than Greece’s. Even though Japan’s government debt is higher... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
