Bonds Update Narrowing of euro-zone spreads not as good as it looks While spreads in the euro-zone have narrowed further recently, nearing multi-year lows, this is mainly because underlying German Bund yields have risen. Indeed, public finances in some euro-zone... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France & Italy Flash Inflation (April) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone inflation remained at 2.2% in April, and that core inflation probably rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. (Euro-zone data due on Friday 2 nd May). But with... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Large variation in long-term office demand prospects across the euro-zone Five years since the onset of the pandemic, the share of remote working in the euro-zone has generally increased by more than we had expected back in 2020. But office-based employment growth has also... 2nd April 2025 · 11 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key questions on Europe’s defence spending European governments are poised to further scale up their plans for defence spending in the coming years which should benefit the equity prices of European defence companies, but the boost to GDP is... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy GDP (Q4 2024) With national data now available for all larger euro-zone countries, it looks as if GDP growth in the region slowed to 0.1% q/q or even zero in Q4 last year. (Euro-zone GDP data are out at 10.00 GMT.)... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Downsizing not the only concern for German office demand The underperformance of the German office-based jobs sector since 2019 has been stark and the weak outlook for the economy suggests a material reversal is unlikely in the next five years. This will... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the “periphery” continue to outperform? The outperformance of the peripheral economies since early 2022 is likely to continue over the next year, supported by high immigration, tourism growth and Next Generation EU funding. That said... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy budget: better than France but concerns remain Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
