Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ hikes, Saudi banks go abroad, Trump’s metals tariffs OPEC+ opted to stick to a faster pace of oil output increases in July, and Saudi Arabia is now pushing for the group to continue this through to Q4. While this will lift oil GDP growth, the non-oil... 5th June 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Steel tariff hike deals fresh blow to manufacturers Any short-term boost to domestic steel and aluminium production from higher tariffs is likely to be short-lived and offset by declining output in metal-using industries – making the tariff hike a drag... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Aluminium and steel: higher tariffs → bigger impacts The existing tariffs on aluminium and steel have already raised metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere, and it is logical to assume that the announced doubling of tariff rates will only... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A framework for commodities ahead of liberation day Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2nd, dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Metals tariffs in full effect; oil faces demand headwinds US steel and aluminium producers have different scopes to respond to the tariffs implemented this week, which is why we expect the price premium for aluminium in the US to persist for longer than... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US tariffs: what next for commodity markets? Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in... 13th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new... 12th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Outlook Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of... 13th December 2024 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in... 24th September 2024 · 24 mins read
Commodities Update China’s metals overcapacity to bear down on prices While the debate around China’s manufacturing overcapacity has centred around politically sensitive topics such as electric vehicles, its industrial metals sector is no exception. Whereas the focus of... 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Injecting some nuance into high hopes for hydrogen Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
