OPEC+ opted to stick to a faster pace of oil output increases in July, and Saudi Arabia is now pushing for the group to continue this through to Q4. While this will lift oil GDP growth, the non-oil sector will soften against the backdrop of low oil prices and fresh fiscal consolidation. Tighter fiscal policy is also putting pressure on Saudi banks to finance domestic projects, but this risks crowding out private sector lending. Finally, Bahrain and the UAE are the most vulnerable to the hike in President Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs, although the UAE might be well positioned to negotiate tariffs down.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services